IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Ram¡rez Bravo, O.E.; Lopez Gonzalez, C.A. | |
| Predictive Habitat and Population Viability Models for Jaguars (_Panthera onca_) in the Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico | |
| 2007 Conference Proceeding | |
Due to habitat loss, it is necessary to identify areas with potential viability for endangered species. In the case of jaguar (_Panthera onca_) little is known for extreme distributional areas, making it necessary to create conservation strategies to assure long term survival. For this purpose, a spatial dynamic model (PATCH) was used to determine priority areas in the Sierra Madre Oriental, M‚xico. It was developed, with a static model created estimating mortality (human population density and paved road density) and survival (vegetation index and physiographic aspects) probability. Demographic information used, was previously published. Three scenarios were considered: actual conditions, human population growth in 15 years, and paved road density increase in 15 years. Results show that actual conditions provide sufficient habitat for jaguar survival in a 200 year span. However, increase in human population and road density will result in species extinction in a 50 year span with an increase in possible conflicts. The results of this model will help to concentrate resources into certain areas to assure long term survival for jaguar populations. |
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