IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Loveridge, A.J.; Canney, S. | |
| African Lion Distribution Modelling Project | |
| 2009 Full Book | |
Populations of African lions are thought to have declined substantially over the last few decades. We used two GIS based (biological and statistical) approaches to predict the distribution of current lion populations and the threats they face across Africa. We extracted data on lion numbers, ranging behaviour, prey availability, rainfall, human density and livestock density from the literature and from existing GIS data layers. In the first model we show that lion density in protected areas is closely related to prey biomass ant hat lion home rang size is negatively correlated with prey biomass. Biomass in turn is determined primarily by rainfall and soil nutrients. This relationship was modelled using a geographic information system to map potential lion density across the continent. The second model employs a statistical approach that utilises data collated on lion presence, absence and density, along with environmental and anthropogenic factors that may contribute to lion occurrence and population persistence. The results of this model highlight the importance of rainfall and soil (using NDVI as a proxy for these factors), levels of human impact and levels of protectedness as key determinants of both occurrence and abundance. Expanding human and livestock populations, prey depletion and habitat conservation and unmanaged exploitation or eradication efforts may be the key factors responsible for declining lion numbers. Well managed utilisation what protects habitat and prey likely has low impact on lion populations. Lion populations are most vulnerable in low rainfall areas where home ranges are large due to low prey density. To safeguard viable populations of lions, protected areas in arid regions need to be comparatively larger than those in more mesic parts of the continent. To make a meaningful contribution to lion conservation, we recommend prioritising funding of surveys, research in key areas, capacity building in existing protected areas and assistance with conflict management outside protected areas in and around habitat corridors. |
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