IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Paltsyn, M.; Gibbs, J.P.; Iegorova, L.; Pereladova, O. | |
| Modeling of tiger and its prey populations in Balkhash Lake Region as the basis for adaptive management of the tiger reintroduction program in Kazakhstan | |
| 2015 Full Book | |
The southern shore of Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan as well as the area surrounding and to the east of the Ili River delta has been identified by WWF as a potential site for a tiger restoration program. This area still has vast tugay woodlands and reed thickets that were populated by Caspian tigers (_Panthera tigris virgata_) up to the middle of 20th century. These riparian ecosystems still cover more than 7,000 kmý on the southern shore of Balkhash Lake and may represent suitable habitat for tiger introduction. Currently about 25% of the ecosystems are degraded due to intense annual fires and livestock grazing, but may be restored via fire management, grazing restrictions and support of optimal water regime in Ili River. Tugay woodlands and reed thickets can contain high population densities of wild boar (_Sus scrofa_) and Bukhara deer (_Cervus elaphus bactrianus_), main prey species for tiger in Central Asia. Roe deer (_Capreolus pygargus_) is another traditional prey species for tiger in the area, although its population density is relatively low. Circumstantial historical evidence collected from hunting records and encounters indicate that the Caspian tiger population density in Central Asia was much higher than that of the Amur tiger and was similar to tiger densities in India. Therefore, restoration of the tiger population in the Balkhash region could make a considerable contribution to the Global Tiger Recovery Program. This report provides details of projection modeling of the area of potential tiger habitat - tugay woodlands and reed thickets - as well as population growth models for tiger and its prey species (wild boar, Bukhara deer, and roe deer) on the southern shore of Balkhash Lake and Ili River delta over the next 50 years given three scenarios of possible habitat change and management options for tiger introduction program. The objectives of this modeling exercise are as follows: - To identify possible changes in the distribution and area of potential tiger habitat (tugai woodlands and thicket); - To define time-to-recovery for prey species (wild boar, Bukhara deer, and roe deer) and predict population dynamics given three scenarios of possible habitat changes; - To estimate optimal timing and regimes for tiger introduction given temporal change in the availability of their prey; - To evaluate potential number of tigers that could populate the project area and number of tigers needed for introduction; - To evaluate impact on source populations of tigers and Bukhara deer due to removal of individuals for introduction. |
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