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Ferreras, P.; Cousins, S.H.
The use of a delphi technique with GIS for estimating the global abundance of top predators: the lion in Africa
1996 Full Book
A new method is presented for estimating the abundance of a species where a Delphi technique for consulting experts is combined with modeling of biological data (Leaf Area Index) and databases describing human activites. Fourteen experts on lion populations Panthera leo were identified and asked to prioritise factors which affect the abundance of lions inside and outside national parks or protected areas. They were also asked to comment on the factors identified from the literature and adjust a map predicting lion abundances based on those factors. A population of 784,700 was estimated over the present range of the lion if contemporary human impact on ecosystems. In this framework, top predators define ecosystems as objects rather than as concepts.
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