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Karanth, K.U.; Chundawat, R.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.
Estimation of tiger densities in the tropical dry forests of Panna, Central India, using photographic capture-recapture sampling
2004  Animal Conservation (7): 285-290

Tropical dry-deciduous forests comprise more than 45% of the tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat in India. However, in the absence of rigorously derived estimates of ecological densities of tigers in dry forests, critical baseline data for managing tiger populations are lacking. In this study tiger densites were estimated using photographic capture-recapture sampling in the dry forests of Panna Tiger Reserve in Central India. Over a 45-day survey period, 60 camera trap sites were sampled in a well-protected part of the 542 square km reserve during 2002. A total sampling effort of 914 camera-trap-days yielded photo-captuers of 11 individual tigers over 15 sampling occasions that effectively covered a 418 square km area. The closed capture-recapture model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, fitted these photographic capture history data well. The estimated capture probability/sample beta=0.04, resulted in an estimated tiger population size and standard error of 29 (9.65) and a density of 6.94 (3.23) tigers/100km square. The estimated tiger density matched predictions based on prey abundance. Our results suggest that, if managed appropriately, the available dry forest habitat in India has the potential to support a population size of about 9000 wild tigers.

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