IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Craft, M.; Volz, E.; Meyers, L.A.; Packer, C. | |
| Canine Distemper Virus Dynamics in Serengeti Lions: a Modeling Approach | |
| 2007 Conference Proceeding | |
Because felids are generally found at low densities, they are unlikely to be threatened by specialist pathogens; however, they are almost always members of large carnivore communities, and are susceptible to generalist pathogens. Generalist pathogens, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), can have devastating effects on wild felid populations; in 1994 over 1000 Serengeti lions died from CDV. In order to understand the CDV transmission dynamics among lions in the Serengeti ecosystem, we built a spatially-explicit mathematical model of CDV transmission based on pride location, demographic, and contact data from the Serengeti Lion Project. We use this model to (1) analyze the impact of nomads and residential male lions in epidemiological dynamics, and (2) ask whether lion populations can sustain CDV epidemics without repeated introduction from other sympatric carnivore species, such as hyenas and jackals. Even when we used extreme parameters for lion contact patterns, we could not produce the number of infected prides and duration of the epidemic as observed in 1994; we conclude that other carnivore species were likely involved in repeated spillover events to lions during 1994 epidemic. These findings have management implications in reducing the threat of infectious diseases to lions and endangered carnivore populations. |
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