IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Funston, P.; Ferreira, S. | |
| Variability in Lion Density and Survival in Kruger National Park | |
| 2007 Conference Proceeding | |
Few lion populations have reliable estimates of population size, trends in these, or demography. We developed a statistically robust approach for estimating selected population variables. We then chose the Kruger National Park to evaluate the threat of the disease bovine tuberculosis (BTb) in various prey biomass zones. We calibrated call-up surveys, defined the sampling intensity for a desired precision, and estimated lion densities in six prey biomass/BTb zones. Assigning sex and age to responding lions allowed the extraction of age distributions, from which we estimated survival rate. We collated previous estimates to define the likely lion trend that did not change for 30 years. Density and survival rates were both strongly associated with prey biomass. However, some of the variation in survival was associated with the prevalence of BTb in lion prey - against expectation rates were higher in areas that had high prevalence of BTb. The effect of BTb on the lions may be negligible at present, but droughts could disrupt the hierarchical influences of prey biomass and BTb prevalence on lion densities and survival. To evaluate any accentuated effect of BTb on lion demography population surveys should include structure assessments and be complimented by focal assessments of fecundity. |
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