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Rhodes, J.R.; Ng, C.F.; de Villiers, D.L.; Preece, H.J.; McAlpine, C.A.; Possingham, H.P.
Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population
2011  Biological Conservation (144): 1081-1088

Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify theconservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on therate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here wedemonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimatesof the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (_Phascolarctos cinereus_) population in SoutheastQueensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertaintyand bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantifymortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to whicheach of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored,to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantiallyreduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats wouldneed to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategiesfor simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true formany of the world's threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifyingthe conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.

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