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Carrillo, L.; Ceballos, C.; Chavez, C.; Cornejo, J.; Faller, J.C.; List, R.; Zarza, H.
Population and habitat viability assessment of jaguars in Mexico
2011  Book Chapter

This work is the result of the 2nd Symposium: The Mexican jaguar in the XXI Century: Populations and Habitat Viability Analysis, which took place in Cuernavaca's Golf Club, in Morelos, Mexico, from November 21 to 14, 2006. Mexico is an important stronghold for the jaguar (_Panthera onca_), but with ongoing habitat loss and jaguar poaching throughout the country, it became necessary to assess the viability of the species to determine the strategies for their conservation. We used program VORTEX to identify the factors that have a greater effect on the probability of extinction. These are; number of cubs per litter, increase of reproductive females and reduction of female's maximum reproductive age, female and cub mortality. Poaching mortality significantly reduces population growth and increases the risk of extinction of the small populations. This effect is stronger in females, as when take is over 3% of the female population, extinction makes populations non-viable over 100 years. Population sizes < 100 individuals are not viable. The populations of the five different jaguar regions were assessed, taking into account habitat loss, carrying capacity and poaching, with the Sonora and Tamaulipas populations, in the temperate north, being at greater risk, and the Selva Maya in the tropical south being viable in the longterm. Information gaps were identified, as well as key players and actions which can reduce the risk factors and increase long-term viability of the jaguar in Mexico.

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