IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Andr‚n, H.; Chapron, G. | |
| Prognoser f”r lodjurspopulationen 2012 och 2013 i Sverige | |
| 2011 Full Book | |
We have forecasted the lynx population size for the winter 2011/2012 given the hunt in 2011 and for the winter 2012/2013 given different hunting quotas in 2012 for the northern and middle large carnivores management regions in Sweden using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. In the northern large carnivores management region 137 lynx family groups were registered during the survey in winter 2010/2011. The forecast for the winter 2011/2012 is 123 (79-199) including the hunt in 2011 (85 lynx shot) and 129 (71-250) for the winter 2012/2013 with no hunting in 2012. The probability to come below the regional minimum level of 75 lynx family groups in the northern large carnivores management region is 0.03 for the winter 2012/2013 without any hunting in 2012 and 0.07 with a hunting quota of 60 lynx. In the middle large carnivores management region 126 lynx family groups were registered during the survey in winter 2010/2011. The forecast for the winter 2011/2012 is 127 (99-163) including the hunt in 2011 (23 lynx shot) and 131 (95-182) for the winter 2012/2013 with no hunting in 2012. The probability to come below the regional minimum level of 137 lynx family groups in the middle large carnivores management is 0.62 for the winter 2012/2013 without any hunting in 2012 and 0.72 with a hunting quota of 40 lynx. Thus, there is a very limited possibility for lynx hunting in the middle large carnivores management region in order to achieve the regional minimum level of 137 lynx family groups already in winter 2012/2013. |
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