IUCN / SSC Cat Specialist Group - Digital Cat Library |
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| Maerkel, U. | |
| Timing and prey activity are much more important than environmental features for successful attempts by a stalking predator | |
| 2013 Full Book | |
Landscapes of fear are dynamically changing distributions of predation risk over space and time. In this study, a single, solitary hunting stalk-and-ambush predator, the Eurasian lynx (_Lynx lynx_), and its main prey, the European roe deer (_Capreolus capreolus_), are investigated. The following spatial and temporal hypotheses about the distribution of predation risk are tested: 1a) There is low (high) predation risk in areas with little (a lot of) understory or structure, because these should be poor (good) stalking conditions for lynx. 1b) There is high predation risk in areas with good food supply for roe deer, because there exists a trade-o between food and safety for roe deer. 1c) Predation risk is low close to human settlements, because roe deer are assumed to approach settlements closer than lynx. 2a) Roe deer show a lower activity level before a kill, because lynx are assumed to surprise roe deer in low-activity phases. 2b) Predation risk is highest during dusk, when lynx activity is highest. To test these hypotheses, GPS and activity data from 31 roe deer were used, which were collared and killed by lynx in the Bavarian Forest National Park between 2004 and 2012. Features of the kill sites are compared with individual roe deer histories. A conditional logit regression model with a case-crossover design was used. The explanatory variables were activity of roe deer, time interval to the last sunset, and spatial data characterizing the specific site. None of the environmental variables showed a strong effect on the probability of a kill. The most important factors that drive the probability of being killed are the time of day (approx. 5 hours after sunset), and a high activity level of roe deer. For roe deer, the risk of being killed exists anywhere, but not anytime. My results highlight the need for the inclusion of the temporal context. Timing and increased prey activity seem to be much more important factors than any environmental features for successful attempts by lynx on roe deer. |
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